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11:00
Jun 20
Jun 20
Fernando Ulrich
22h
STRC 1ST
▾
MED
Long STRC, sell-off is temporary
Despite a sharp sell-off in Strategy's preferred stock (STRC), the speaker remains long and does not plan to sell. He argues the sell-off is not a 'death spiral' for Strategy, and the fear is unwarranted. He promises a deeper analysis in a future video but maintains his bullish position.
STRC LONG
MED
11:00
Jun 14
Jun 14
SPCX 1ST
NTNB 2032
USDBRL 1ST
Tesouro Prefixado 2029
BNO 1ST
▾
HIGH
SpaceX's historic IPO, the largest ever, is a strong signal that the AI bubble may keep inflating for months or even years. With a very low float (~5%) and imminent inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, passive buying from ETFs and index funds will provide upward price pressure or at least offset insider selling, making the stock attractive in the near term.
SPCX LONG
Short Brazilian government bonds yields rising
Lula is doubling down on fiscal irresponsibility, dismissing the importance of budget control and comparing Brazil's debt favourably to rich countries. Brazil's public debt is much shorter, heavily indexed to Selic and inflation, and the government continues to underestimate the problem. The yield curve has already opened sharply, with NTNB 2032 near 8.40% and Tesouro Prefixado 2029 near 14.7%, and yields will keep rising as the market demands higher risk premiums for the lack of fiscal seriousness.
NTNB 2032 SHORT
Tesouro Prefixado 2029 SHORT
Short Brazilian real on fiscal crisis
If Lula is re-elected and continues the current fiscal rhetoric, the Brazilian real will plunge, potentially reaching 6, 6.5 or 7 per dollar. Treasury auctions could fail and the government may resort to desperate heterodox measures, triggering a full-blown crisis. The structural fiscal damage makes the real a short.
USDBRL LONG
Bearish oil on peace deal
A potential pending peace deal between the US and Iran is driving oil prices lower. Brent crude has already dropped below $88 per barrel, and official confirmation of the deal would sustain or increase downward pressure as supply disruptions ease, including the resumption of oil exports from UAE and Kuwait through the Strait of Hormuz.
BNO SHORT
HIGH
20:34
Jun 11
Jun 11
SPCX
Short SpaceX
▾
HIGH
Buy SpaceX only after a 50% drop.
SpaceX stock could surge at IPO due to strong demand and passive ETF inflows, but he will not buy now. He expects a sharp correction driven by dilution, lock-up expansion, engineering risks, and AI bubble uncertainty. He would only consider a long entry after at least a 50% decline below a $1 trillion valuation, which would provide a sufficient margin of safety to bet on Elon Musk's execution and the long-term multi-planetary mission.
SPCX WATCH
Never structurally short SpaceX.
Betting against Elon Musk with a structural short is extremely dangerous. Despite low probabilities of success for each venture, Musk has repeatedly delivered against all odds (Tesla, SpaceX, others). A structural short on his companies, including SpaceX, carries an unacceptable risk of devastating losses; therefore, one should never hold a structural short on SpaceX.
Short SpaceX AVOID
HIGH
20:00
Jun 09
Jun 09
Fernando Ulrich
11d
USD/BRL
Tesouro Prefixado 2029
Tesouro IPCA+ 2050
▾
HIGH
USD/BRL will surge to 6.00–7.00.
O déficit fiscal e o endividamento crescentes levarão o mercado a precificar estresse, fazendo o dólar disparar para R$6,00, R$6,50, R$7,00, forçando o governo a um ajuste fiscal.
USD/BRL LONG
Brazilian bonds will sell off, yields spike.
As taxas de juros dos títulos públicos brasileiros são insustentáveis devido ao risco fiscal. O mercado forçará um ajuste fiscal, elevando as taxas dos prefixados para 15-16% ao ano e tornando os níveis atuais uma armadilha. Os juros reais também subirão, com o risco de rejeição do mercado caso as taxas de IPCA+ cheguem a 8-10%.
Tesouro Prefixado 2029 AVOID
Tesouro IPCA+ 2050 AVOID
HIGH
11:00
Jun 06
Jun 06
Fernando Ulrich
14d
BTC FLIP
BOVA11.SA 1ST
MSTR
▾
HIGH
AI boom sucking capital, avoid Bitcoin.
The AI boom is sucking capital from crypto assets, and if AI stocks crash, Bitcoin will fall further. The bottom may not have been reached yet.
BTC AVOID
AI boom hurting Brazilian equities.
The AI boom is diverting capital from emerging markets, including Brazil, causing foreign investors to flee the Brazilian stock market.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
MicroStrategy cash reserve uncertainty, avoid.
Recent actions by Michael Saylor have created uncertainty about MicroStrategy's ability to pay dividends, and the company needs to reconstitute its cash reserves.
MSTR AVOID
HIGH
11:00
May 31
May 31
20:00
May 28
May 28
Fernando Ulrich
23d
NVDA 1ST
INTC
AMD
AVGO 1ST
CSCO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid AI semiconductor stocks due to bubble.
The AI semiconductor stocks are in a bubble similar to the dot-com bubble. While demand for AI compute is real, the capex cycle is likely unsustainable and will eventually reverse. The risk-reward for these stocks over the next 5-10 years is unfavorable, and the speaker is not buying any of them. He advises avoiding these names despite the potential for further short-term upside.
NVDA AVOID
INTC AVOID
AMD AVOID
AVGO AVOID
CSCO AVOID
MU AVOID
TSM AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
ASML AVOID
005930.KS AVOID
ARM AVOID
SMH AVOID
HIGH
11:01
May 23
May 23
20:34
May 20
May 20
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
BTC
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is inevitable and superior technology.
The speaker argues Iran's adoption of Bitcoin for payments in the Strait of Hormuz is inevitable because Bitcoin is technologically superior: fast (10-minute blocks), cheap, trustless, verifiable via full node, irreversible after confirmations, and censorship-resistant (unlike USDT which can be frozen). Bitcoin is the only true final settlement asset in the digital age, superior to gold (logistics cost) and fiat (third-party dependency). This adoption validates Bitcoin's value and inevitability as 'monetary gunpowder'.
BTC LONG
HIGH
20:30
May 19
May 19
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
CASH 1ST
▾
MED
Raise cash for capital preservation.
In the current environment of rising global bond yields, fiscal risks, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial repression, investors should stay more liquid and raise their cash levels to protect against strong market corrections.
CASH LONG
MED
11:00
May 17
May 17
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
Tech IG corporate bonds
QQQ 1ST
US Treasury 3yr
▾
MED
Buy US Treasuries and tech IG bonds.
With 3-year U.S. Treasury yields jumping from 3.2% to 4.1% in the past month and 5-year yields at similar levels, fixed income now offers attractive risk-adjusted returns for capital preservation. He advises rebalancing into high-quality bonds, including U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade bonds of technology companies, as a core preservation strategy in the current uncertain macro environment.
Tech IG corporate bonds LONG
US Treasury 3yr LONG
Buy QQQ puts as correction hedge.
The market is extremely overconcentrated in seven AI-related mega-caps (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Broadcom, Micron) which drive 52% of S&P 500 earnings growth while their free cash flow is falling. Any disruption to the AI capex cycle, e.g., from geopolitical shocks or failure to monetize investments, could trigger a severe correction. The VIX 3-month is near pre-war lows, making long-dated put options on the Nasdaq relatively cheap. He recommends buying 6-month put options on QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) at approximately 2 standard deviations strike (-35% from current level) as a hedge for investors who are still constructively positioned in equities.
QQQ SHORT
MED
11:00
May 16
May 16
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
Cash (USD)
Cash (BRL)
▾
MED
Increase cash in USD and BRL.
Increase cash allocation in both US dollars and Brazilian reais, using money market funds or similar liquid instruments, to be ready to deploy capital when market opportunities arise, particularly given the risk of a tech/AI correction and geopolitical uncertainties.
Cash (USD) LONG
Cash (BRL) LONG
MED
20:57
May 11
May 11
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
SPY 1ST
QQQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 low breadth, reduce.
The S&P 500 is showing historically low breadth (fewer stocks above 50-day moving average despite the index being 7% above it, and more new lows than new highs at an all-time high), signaling fragility. Burry recommends reducing equity exposure overall.
SPY AVOID
Nasdaq 100 bubble, reduce exposure.
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced parabolic gains resembling the dot-com bubble, with extreme moves in semiconductors and low market breadth, making it vulnerable to a sharp correction. Burry recommends reducing exposure to technology stocks.
QQQ AVOID
HIGH
11:00
May 10
May 10
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
BTC 1ST
STRK 1ST
OBTC3.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin as war safe haven and AI money
Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized digital asset backed by global liquidity and proof-of-work. It has demonstrated superior performance during geopolitical crises (e.g., the US-Iran conflict) while gold corrected. Furthermore, a survey indicated 70-80% of AI agents prefer Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, reinforcing its role as neutral digital money. These factors support a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin as a safe haven and future AI-driven settlement asset.
BTC LONG
STRK pays 11.5% yield, strong demand
Strategy's Series STRK perpetual preferred stock (the 'Stretch' series) pays a monthly dividend of 11.5% per annum in dollars, backed by the company's massive Bitcoin treasury. The instrument has been a resounding success, with $8 billion issued, and is being underwritten by major banks like Morgan Stanley. As an income-oriented vehicle that benefits from Bitcoin's long-term appreciation and the company's credit-improvement efforts, STRK offers an attractive risk-reward for yield-seeking investors who want Bitcoin exposure without direct spot volatility.
STRK LONG
OBTC3 trades at MNAV discount, buyback
OBTC3 is a Brazilian publicly-listed Bitcoin treasury company that currently trades at a meaningful discount to its Net Asset Value per share (MNAV of ~0.85-0.80). The company has a 5-year R$210 million debt with Itaú at CDI+1.85%, using Bitcoin as collateral, with proceeds earmarked for additional Bitcoin purchases and share buybacks. The buyback program increases Bitcoin per share when the stock is below MNAV. The company maintains low leverage, has ample cash, and is growing its shareholder base. This creates an asymmetric opportunity for investors to gain leveraged, discounted exposure to Bitcoin with a strong corporate structure.
OBTC3.SA LONG
HIGH
11:00
May 09
May 09
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
TROX 1ST
BORR 1ST
▾
HIGH
US chemicals boom, Tronox benefits.
Tronox (TROX) was bought when its stock was below $3, and has since risen nearly 300%, but the fund still holds a position. The thesis is that US chemical companies, especially TiO2 producers like Tronox, have a massive competitive advantage from cheap natural gas, while European and Chinese competitors have become unprofitable due to the Iran war. The narrative of overcapacity was wrong; demand for TiO2 continues to grow, and the US industry is benefiting disproportionately.
TROX LONG
Oil demand rising, jackups essential.
Borr Drilling (BORR) remains a holding despite the stock's appreciation, because the world's demand for oil continues to rise, jackup rigs are the fastest and cheapest way to increase production, and the Iran conflict has shifted global focus to energy security, which should drive more jackup contracts. The stock was bought at much lower prices, and though the fund reduced its position from 30% to 10%, the thesis still holds.
BORR LONG
HIGH
20:46
May 05
May 05
Fernando Ulrich
1mo
USDC 1ST
USDT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stablecoins are attractive for dollar exposure.
Stablecoins (USDC/USDT) are being rapidly adopted by Brazilians as a digital dollar store of value and medium of exchange, with monthly inflows exceeding $2 billion and cumulative holdings near $60 billion. The trend is driven by convenience, lower costs, transparency, security, and the ability to self-custody, making them an attractive alternative to traditional banking for dollar exposure, despite potential regulatory headwinds like IOF.
USDC LONG
USDT LONG
HIGH
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